Number of observations

3040

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Last update

January 15 2020

Success rate by treatment

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Success rate by stratum

Distribution across strata

Total number of observations

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	38	29	55	52
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	76	58	84	113
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	3	3	3	4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	4	2	8	12
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	196	101	129	138
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	38	28	65	65
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	8	5	9	8
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	3	3	2	5
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	36	34	38	84
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	31	81	98	90
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	13	22	12	9
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	36	19	25	51
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	65	164	128	96
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	46	58	67	48
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	44	44	53	37
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	21	20	72	51

Total number of successes

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	2	0	1	2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	5	3	5	8
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	1	0	0	1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	1	1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	6	2	1	0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	1	1	2	1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1	0	1	0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	0	0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	1	1	2	6
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	3	9	13	11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	2	4	1	0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	3	1	1	4
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	1	7	5	3
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	6	5	4	3
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	3	2	1	2
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	10	3

Success rates

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.05	0.00	0.02	0.04
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.07	0.05	0.06	0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.08
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.02
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.12	0.00	0.11	0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.10	0.11	0.13	0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.15	0.18	0.08	0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.03
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.13	0.09	0.06	0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.05
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.06

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.07	0.05	0.06	0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.08	0.05	0.07	0.05
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.05
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.05	0.04	0.06	0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.08	0.09	0.11	0.10
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.09	0.10	0.07	0.05
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.10	0.07	0.06	0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.04	0.04	0.11	0.06

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.50	0.13	0.13	0.25
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.31	0.16	0.21	0.32
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.41	0.13	0.15	0.31
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.23	0.18	0.34	0.25
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.53	0.33	0.10	0.03
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.31	0.35	0.23	0.10
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.40	0.15	0.33	0.12
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.31	0.22	0.28	0.20
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.16	0.13	0.27	0.43
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.14	0.18	0.41	0.27
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.34	0.45	0.15	0.06
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.38	0.17	0.15	0.30
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.16	0.33	0.30	0.20
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.62	0.20	0.09	0.10
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.45	0.21	0.08	0.27
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.04	0.03	0.84	0.08

Current assignment probabilities

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.45	0.15	0.15	0.25
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.30	0.18	0.22	0.30
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.38	0.15	0.17	0.30
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.23	0.19	0.33	0.25
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.48	0.32	0.13	0.08
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.30	0.33	0.24	0.13
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.37	0.17	0.31	0.15
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.30	0.22	0.27	0.21
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.18	0.16	0.27	0.39
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.16	0.19	0.38	0.27
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.32	0.41	0.17	0.10
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.35	0.19	0.17	0.29
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.18	0.32	0.29	0.21
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.54	0.21	0.12	0.13
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.41	0.21	0.11	0.26
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.09	0.07	0.73	0.12

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	(0.020, 0.110)	(0.000, 0.080)	(0.010, 0.070)	(0.020, 0.090)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	(0.030, 0.110)	(0.020, 0.100)	(0.030, 0.100)	(0.040, 0.100)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	(0.030, 0.210)	(0.010, 0.130)	(0.010, 0.140)	(0.020, 0.190)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	(0.010, 0.140)	(0.010, 0.130)	(0.020, 0.160)	(0.020, 0.140)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	(0.020, 0.060)	(0.010, 0.060)	(0.000, 0.040)	(0.000, 0.030)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	(0.010, 0.090)	(0.010, 0.100)	(0.010, 0.080)	(0.010, 0.060)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	(0.020, 0.170)	(0.010, 0.120)	(0.020, 0.160)	(0.010, 0.110)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	(0.010, 0.150)	(0.010, 0.130)	(0.010, 0.140)	(0.010, 0.120)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	(0.010, 0.100)	(0.010, 0.090)	(0.020, 0.110)	(0.030, 0.110)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	(0.030, 0.150)	(0.050, 0.140)	(0.070, 0.160)	(0.060, 0.160)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	(0.030, 0.190)	(0.040, 0.190)	(0.020, 0.140)	(0.010, 0.110)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	(0.030, 0.140)	(0.020, 0.120)	(0.010, 0.110)	(0.030, 0.120)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	(0.010, 0.070)	(0.020, 0.070)	(0.020, 0.070)	(0.020, 0.070)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	(0.050, 0.170)	(0.040, 0.120)	(0.030, 0.100)	(0.020, 0.110)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	(0.030, 0.120)	(0.020, 0.100)	(0.010, 0.070)	(0.020, 0.110)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	(0.010, 0.100)	(0.000, 0.090)	(0.060, 0.170)	(0.020, 0.110)

90% credible sets, plotted

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.017, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.007. \end{align*}\]

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03) \end{align*}\]